With the 2018 Winter Games now just days away, Gracenote is releasing its final Virtual Medal Table (VMT) predicting which countries and athletes will take home the 306 total medals up for grabs and how we expect the final medal tally to look. In this final publication, we concentrate on the top five medal winning countries, the likely star athletes of the PyeongChang Games and the countries which will benefit from strong performances by female competitors. We also list every country likely to pick up medals in South Korea.
This report updates the Gracenote Virtual Medal Table last published on January 10, 2018, one month ahead of the start of the PyeongChang Games. Our projections are based on results from the world’s most extensive database of Olympic sports and a proprietary statistical model which is applied to that data.
- Norway is projected to win a Winter Olympic record 41 medals, two more than Germany and four more than the U.S.A. won at Vancouver 2010, the most by any country at a Winter Games. Norway and Germany should also be closely matched in terms of gold medals.
- Germany has dropped to second in the Gracenote Virtual Medal Table. The 39 medals predicted for Germany will be the country’s best performance, beating Salt Lake City 2002 where the Germans took home 36 medals. U.S.A., Canada and France round out the top-five countries based on total medals. No other nation outside of these five is projected to win 20 or more medals.
- The latest projections call for 8 medals to go to Russian athletes competing under the neutral Olympic Athletes from Russia banner. The country’s leading medal hope is figure skater Evgenia Medvedeva who is favored to win gold in the women’s figure skating competition.
- Germany’s Laura Dahlmeier will likely be the brightest star competing in the biathlon at this year’s Winter Games. Dahlmeier is now forecast to win six gold medals after the withdrawal of her biggest rival in the sprint event, Gabriela Koukalova (Czech Republic).
- American women are likely to account for the majority of medals won by U.S.A. at PyeongChang 2018. This performance would continue a tale of female success for Team U.S.A. which has been present for nearly 60 years.
The Top Five Medal Winning Countries
The below ranking is based on total medal counts per country. For a view of gold medals by country, please refer to the graphics at the end of this article.
- Norway will fight it out with Germany for the top spot on the PyeongChang 2018 medal table. Currently, the Norwegians are projected to win an Olympic record 41 medals (13 gold, 13 silver and 15 bronze), beating the current best of 37 by the U.S.A. at Vancouver 2010. This would also be Norway’s best performance to-date by a wide margin. At both the 1994 and 2014 Winter Games, the Norwegians took home 26 total medals. If the Norwegian team achieves the number one spot, it will be the first time since 1968 that Norway has done so without hosting the Winter Olympics. Norway is forecast to take home 17 medals in cross country skiing alone, four more than the current Olympic record of 13 set by the Soviet Union at the 1988 Winter Games.
Leading gold medal contenders for Norway: Kjetil Jansrud (Alpine Skiing), Johannes Bø (Biathlon), Heidi Weng (Cross Country Skiing), Martin Johnsrud Sundby (Cross Country Skiing), Marit Bjørgen (Cross Country Skiing), Johannes Høsflot Klæbo (Cross Country Skiing), Ingvild Flugstad Østberg (Cross Country Skiing), Maren Lundby (Ski Jumping).
- Germany is projected to win a combined 39 medals (14 gold, 11 silver and 14 bronze). This would be Germany’s highest medal total since winning 36 at the Salt Lake City Games in 2002. Germany’s strongest sport at the upcoming Winter Games is likely to be biathlon in which the team is projected to win nine medals. This would be two shy of Germany’s own Olympic record of 11, set at the 2006 Games.
Leading gold medal contenders for Germany: Laura Dahlmeier (Biathlon), Francesco Friedrich (Bobsleigh), Johannes Lochner (Bobsleigh), Felix Loch (Luge), Natalie Geisenberger (Luge), Toni Eggert and Sascha Benecken (Luge), Eric Frenzel (Nordic Combined), Jacqueline Lölling (Skeleton).
- U.S.A. is forecast to finish in third place on the table with a combined 29 medals (11 gold, 6 silver and 12 bronze). Team U.S.A. has won at least 25 total medals since hosting the 2002 Salt Lake City Winter Olympics and is expected to continue this run at this year’s Winter Games. In PyeongChang, the Americans are projected to win medals in a record 11 different sports out of 15 according to the Gracenote Virtual Medal Table. The country’s best performances should be in alpine skiing (led by Mikaela Shiffrin and Lindsey Vonn), freestyle skiing and snowboarding (via Jamie Anderson and Julia Marino) and speed skating (by Heather Bergsma). The U.S. could also win its first Olympic medal in biathlon with Lowell Bailey who is currently projected to win silver in the 20km individual event. The only American men currently projected to win gold are the freestyle skiers Aaron Blunck and McRae Williams.
Leading gold medal contenders for the U.S.A.: Mikaela Shiffrin (Alpine Skiing), Lindsey Vonn (Alpine Skiing), Ida Sargent and Sophie Caldwell (Cross Country Skiing), Aaron Blunck (Freestyle Skiing), McRae Williams (Freestyle Skiing), Chloe Kim (Snowboard), Jamie Anderson (Snowboard), Lindsey Jacobellis (Snowboard), Heather Bergsma (Speed Skating) plus the women’s ice hockey team.
- Canada is predicted to be one short of Team U.S.A.’s performance in PyeongChang with a combined 28 medals (7 gold, 9 silver and 12 bronze). The Canadians are expected to win medals in eight different sports out of 15 at the 2018 Winter Games. This would be two short of the current Olympic record set by U.S.A. in 2002 and achieved by Canada in 2006, Germany in 2010 and Canada again in 2014.
Leading gold medal contenders for Canada: Kaillie Humphries (Bobsleigh), Mikael Kingsbury (Freestyle Skiing), Mark McMorris (Snowboard), Maxence Parrot (Snowboard) plus the men’s and women’s curling teams.
- France is projected to round out the top-five in overall medals in PyeongChang. The French team should win a national record 21 medals (10 gold, 8 silver and 3 bronze) overall. This would smash their best-ever Winter Olympic total of 15 medals won at the Sochi Winter Games in 2014.
Leading gold medal contenders for France: Tessa Worley (Alpine Skiing), Martin Fourcade (Biathlon), Maurice Manificat (Cross Country Skiing), Gabriella Papadakis and Guillaume Cizeron (Figure Skating), Marie Martinod (Freestyle Skiing), Tess Ledeux (Freestyle Skiing), Pierre Vaultier (Snowboard).
The Olympic Athletes from Russia (OAR) team is missing a number of competitors from Russia who would have been projected medals by the Gracenote Virtual Medal Table if they had been permitted to participate. The absence of those competitors has made the forecast OAR medal total eight medals, down from the 20 Gracenote would have projected for Russia. The biggest absentees are speed skaters Pavel Kulizhnikov and Denis Yuskov, both of whom were forecast to win gold.
Norway benefit the most from the Russian absences, adding five medals to their projected total. Germany (+2), Switzerland (+2), France (+1), the Netherlands (+1) and U.S.A. (+1) also improve the number of medals Gracenote expects. The two Russian speed skating golds are now both forecast for the Netherlands.
There are 306 medals at stake at the 2018 Winter Olympics with 147 (48%) in men’s events, 132 (43%) in women’s events and 27 (9%) in mixed or open events. Of the 12 countries expected to win at least 10 medals in PyeongChang, five are currently forecast to win at least half of their medals in women’s events. The nation which appears to benefit most from female contributors is the United States. American women are forecast to win 18 medals, just over 62% of the country’s projected total of 29.
Team U.S.A.’s women are led by the alpine skiers Mikaela Shiffrin and Lindsey Vonn, both of whom are forecast to win two medals on the slopes. Shiffrin is currently in the gold medal position in both giant slalom and slalom on the Virtual Medal Table. Vonn is projected gold in downhill and bronze in super G.
In addition, speed skater Heather Bergsma, snowboarders Chloe Kim, Jamie Anderson and Lindsey Jacobellis, the women’s ice hockey team and cross country skiers Ida Sargent and Sophie Caldwell are also forecast by Gracenote to take gold in South Korea.
This is nothing new for the United States at the Winter Olympics. In 1960, Team U.S.A. became the first nation winning at least 10 medals to have at least 50% of its Winter Games medals won in women’s events. Penelope Pitou (twice) , Betsy Baxter Snite, Carol Heiss, Barbara Roles and Jeanne Ashworth all achieved podium placements in women’s events for the U.S.A. at the Winter Games in Squaw Valley, California.
With 18 of the 29 medals projected by the Virtual Medal Table for the American women in PyeongChang, Team U.S.A. is again expected to lead the world in terms of female contribution to its Olympic success. The women of Team U.S.A. set the world record winning 82% of medals at the Albertville Games of 1992 in France.
Other countries to have won at least 10 Olympic medals overall with 60% or more awarded to female athletes are as follows:
- Canada (2006)
- China (2006 and 2010)
- Germany (1998)
- The Unified Team made up of countries from the former Soviet Union (1992)
- Sweden (2006)
- Italy (2002)
Laura Dahlmeier (Germany), Biathlon
6 medals – 6 Gold (7.5km Sprint, 10km Pursuit, 12.5km Mass Start, 15km Individual, 4x6km Relay, 2x6+2x7.5km Relay)
Dahlmeier is the star of the German Olympic team, having won five gold medals and one silver at last year’s World Championships. Although she is ranked at the top of every event she will participate in at this year’s Winter Games, it would be remarkable if she was able to win all six. The Winter Olympic record for any sport is five gold medals, set by American speed skater Eric Heiden at the 1980 Olympics in Lake Placid. No one has won more than five medals of any color at a Winter Olympics, and no biathlete has won more than four.
Martin Fourcade (France), Biathlon
6 medals – 3 Gold (12.5km Pursuit, 15km Mass Start, 20km Individual), 3 Silver (10km Sprint, 2x6+2x7.5km Relay, 4x7.5km Relay)
Biathlete Martin Fourcade is already France’s most decorated Winter Olympian, having won four medals – two gold and two silver – at the 2010 and 2014 Games. Two more gold medals in PyeongChang will take him past alpine skier Jean-Claude Killy as the French athlete with the most Winter Olympic gold medals.
Johannes Bø (Norway), Biathlon
5 medals – 2 Gold (10km Sprint, 4x7.5km Relay), 2 Silver (12.5km Pursuit, 15km Mass Start), 1 Bronze (2x6+2x7.5km Relay)
Johannes Bø is forecast to win five medals at PyeongChang 2018. No male competitor has won more than four medals since Eric Heiden 38 years ago. If Bø manages to win five medals in PyeongChang, he will join speed skater Roald Larsen (1924) and Marit Bjørgen (2010) in winning the most medals for Norway at a single Winter Olympics.
Martin Johnsrud Sundby (Norway), Cross Country Skiing
4 medals – 3 Gold (2x15km Skiathlon, 50km Classic Style, 4x10km Relay), 1 Silver (15km Freestyle)
Martin Johnsrud Sundby already has four Olympic medals to his name, but has yet to score gold. He currently leads two individual events on the Virtual Medal Table and will be part of the Norwegian 4x10km relay team which has won both of the World Championships since the last Winter Olympics.
Marit Bjørgen (Norway), Cross Country Skiing
4 medals – 3 Gold (2x7.5km Skiathlon, 30km Classic Style, 4x5km Relay), 1 Bronze (Sprint Classic Style)
Marit Bjørgen is already one of three women with 10 Winter Olympic medals to their name, the most by a female competitor. Bjørgen shares this record with two other cross country skiers, Raisa Smetanina of the former Soviet Union and Stefania Belmondo of Italy. The record number of Olympic medals is 13, held by Norwegian male biathlete Ole Einar Bjørndalen, a total which Bjørgen now has in her sights.
Charlotte Kalla (Sweden), Cross Country Skiing
4 medals – 4 Silver (10km Freestyle, 2x7.5km Skiathlon, 30km Classic Style, 4x5km Relay)
Charlotte Kalla needs to win just two medals to become the most decorated Swedish woman at the Winter Olympics, overtaking alpine skier Anja Pärson who won a total of six medals at the 2002, 2006 and 2010 Winter Games. Kalla has won two gold medals and three silver at the last two Olympics and is currently ranked in the top two for three individual events and the women’s relay.
Marcel Hirscher (Austria), Alpine Skiing
3 medals – 3 Gold (Alpine Combined, Giant Slalom, Slalom)
Marcel Hirscher is projected to win gold in three alpine skiing events at this year’s Winter Games. If he achieves all three gold medals, he will be only the second Austrian to be so successful at a Winter Olympics. 62 years ago, alpine skier Toni Sailer won the downhill, slalom and giant slalom at the 1956 Winter Games in Cortina d’Ampezzo. Sailer, Frenchman Jean-Claude Killy (1968) and Croatian Janica Kostelic (2002) are the only people to win three alpine skiing gold medals at a single Winter Olympics.
Sven Kramer (Netherlands), Speed Skating
3 medals – 3 Gold (5000m, 10000m, Team Pursuit)
If Sven Kramer scores one of his three projected medals, he will equal his country’s record for medals won at most Winter Olympics. Bob de Jong’s 10000m bronze medal four years ago gave him medals at a Dutch record four different Winter Games.
Choi Minjeong (South Korea), Short Track
3 medals – 2 Gold (1000m, 3000m Relay), 1 Silver (1500m)
Choi Minjeong is ranked in the top two of the 1000m and 1500m by the Gracenote Virtual Medal Table for PyeongChang 2018. She will also be part of the South Korean women’s relay team who are hot favourites to win gold. If Choi wins three medals, she will join the four South Korean women who have achieved this at a Winter Olympics; Chun Lee-Kyeung (1998), Jin Sun-Yu (2006), Park Seung-Hi (2014) and Shim Suk-Hee (2014).
Kamil Stoch (Poland), Ski Jumping
3 medals – 2 Gold (Large Hill, Team), 1 Bronze (Normal Hill)
According to the Gracenote Virtual Medal Table, Kamil Stoch is forecast to finish in the top three in the normal and large hill events, both of which he won four years ago. Stoch is also one of the competitors expected to win gold for Poland in the team event.
Heather Bergsma (U.S.A.), Speed Skating
3 medals – 2 Gold (1000m, 1500m), 1 Bronze (500m)
Heather Bergsma can become the second American woman to win two individual speed skating gold medals in a single Olympics, following Bonnie Blair in 1992. Bergsma has medal chances in the three shortest speed skating events according to the Virtual Medal Table.
Eric Frenzel (Germany), Nordic Combined
3 medals – 1 Gold (Gundersen Normal Hill/10km), 1 Silver (Team Large Hill/4x5km), 1 Bronze (Gundersen Large Hill/10km)
Eric Frenzel already has three Olympic medals to his name and an additional two at PyeongChang 2018 will make him the most successful German in the sport, overtaking the four medals won by both Bjorn Kircheisen (2002, 2006, 2010, 2014) and Georg Hettich (2002, 2006).
Johannes Rydzek (Germany), Nordic Combined
3 medals – 3 Silver (Gundersen Normal Hill/10km, Gundersen Large Hill/10km), Team Large Hill/4x5km)
Only four people have won a medal in all three nordic combined events at an Olympic Games; Felix Gottwald (AUT, 2002 & 2006), Samppa Lajunen (FIN, 2002), Georg Hettich (GER, 2006) and Johnny Spillane (2010). Like his teammate Eric Frenzel (GER), Johannes Rydzek may become the fifth as he is currently forecast medals in all three of the nordic combined disciplines in South Korea.
Ireen Wüst (Netherlands), Speed Skating
3 medals – 3 Silver (1500m, 3000m, Team Pursuit)
After winning eight Olympic medals in her career, speed skater Ireen Wüst is already the most successful Dutch athlete at the Winter Games. If Wüst adds two more in South Korea, she will overtake Anky van Grunsven as the most successful person from the Netherlands at both the Summer and Winter Olympics.
Marie Dorin Habert (France), Biathlon
3 medals – 2 Silver (4x6km Relay, 2x6+2x7.5km Relay), 1 Bronze (15km Individual)
Marie Dorin Habert is one of eight French women to have won two medals at a Winter Olympics. She won silver and bronze at the 2010 Winter Games in Vancouver. Two more medals in PyeongChang will make Habert the first French women to win multiple medals at two different Winter Olympics. She will also become the first French woman to win four medals in a Winter Olympic career if she claims two in South Korea.
Martina Sáblíková (Czech Republic), Speed Skating
2 medals – 2 Gold (3000m, 5000m)
If Martina Sáblíková wins a medal in both the 3000m and 5000m at this year’s Olympic Games, she will be the most decorated Czech at the Winter Games, overtaking cross country skier Katerina Neumannová who won six Olympic medals from 1998 to 2006. Sáblíková won gold at both the 2010 and 2014 Winter Games. If she wins another gold medal, she will join an elite group of speed skaters who have won gold at three different Olympics; Bonnie Blair (USA), Anni Friesinger (GER), Claudia Pechstein (GER) and Ireen Wüst (NED).
Mikaela Shiffrin (U.S.A.), Alpine Skiing
2 medals – 1 Gold (Slalom), 1 Silver (Giant Slalom)
American skiing star Mikaela Shiffrin is set to win the slalom event and finish second in giant slalom. She is the defending Olympic champion in the slalom competition. A second gold in the event in South Korea will make Shiffrin the first person to win the event at two successive Olympics. Swiss skier Vreni Schneider is the only athlete to have achieved gold twice in Olympic slalom, but not successive (1988, 1994).
Stefan Kraft (Austria), Ski Jumping
2 medals – 1 Gold (Normal Hill), 1 Silver (Large Hill)
Austria’s Stefan Kraft is forecast to place in the top three of the two individual ski jumping events at PyeongChang 2018. The Austrian ski jumping team will need to do better than the VMT suggests for Kraft to join the six people have won medals in all three ski jumping events at a single Olympics.
Nao Kodaira (Japan), Speed Skating
2 medals – 1 Gold (500m), 1 Silver (1000m)
If speed skater Nao Kodaira wins medals in the 500m and 1000m in PyeongChang, she would become the first woman to win more than one medal for Japan at a Winter Olympics. Only five Japanese competitors have won multiple medals at a single Winter Olympics; nordic combined skier Takanori Kono, speed skater Hiroyasu Shimuzu and ski jumpers Kazuyoshi Funaki, Masahiko Harada and Noriaki Kasai.
Lindsey Vonn (U.S.A.), Alpine Skiing
2 medals – 1 Gold (Downhill), 1 Bronze (Super G))
Lindsey Vonn won gold and bronze at the 2010 Winter Olympics and is projected to win those medals again in South Korea to take her medal total to four. Only Bode Miller and Julia Mancuso have won four or more alpine skiing Olympic medals for the United States. If Vonn wins gold, she will be the second American alpine skier, after Ted Ligety, to win Olympic gold at two different Olympics.
Other Teams with Medal Chances at the 2018 Winter Olympics
Competitors from 28 different National Olympic Committees are forecast to win medals at PyeongChang 2018. Below this is an overview of the remaining 23 and their leading gold medal contenders.
After winning a record 24 medals at Sochi 2014, the Netherlands should prepare for its second most successful Winter Games. The Virtual Medal Table forecasts 18 medals (7 gold, 7 silver and 4 bronze) for the Dutch in South Korea, fewer medals achieved at Sochi four years ago but significantly more than the current second most successful performance of 11 medals at Nagano 1998. Dutch medal hopes are almost entirely tied to speed skating with three medals forecast in short track in PyeongChang.
Leading gold medal contenders for the Netherlands: Sven Kramer (Speed Skating), Kjeld Nuis (Speed Skating), Jan Smeekens (Speed Skating), Sjinkie Knegt (Short Track) and the men’s team pursuit speed skating team.
With Switzerland predicted to take home 16 medals (4 gold, 6 silver and 6 bronze), it could be the Swiss team’s best Winter Olympic performance, beating Calgary 1988 where the team won 15 medals. In PyeongChang, Swiss competitors are projected to be on the podium six times during the alpine skiing competition; this would be the country’s best performance in the sport since the Calgary Winter Games 30 years ago.
Leading gold medal contenders for Switzerland: Lara Gut (Alpine Skiing), Wendy Holdener (Alpine Skiing), Beat Feuz (Alpine Skiing) and the curling mixed doubles team.
Austria has won at least 16 medals at four of the last five Winter Olympics. All data from the Virtual Medal Table points to the country coming close to that tradition at the 2018 Winter Games. The Austrian team is forecast to win 15 medals (6 gold, 3 silver and 6 bronze) in South Korea. If the six gold medals are achieved, it would be Austria’s second highest gold total, surpassed only by the nine won at Torino 2006. While Austria’s best hopes are in traditional winter sports including alpine skiing, ski jumping, nordic combined and luge, newer Olympic sports like snowboard and skeleton also offer medal opportunities.
Leading gold medal contenders for Austria: Marcel Hirscher (Alpine Skiing), Stefan Kraft (Ski Jumping), Anna Gasser (Snowboard), Andreas Prommegger (Snowboard).
Sweden is forecast to win 15 medals (3 gold, 10 silver and 2 bronze) at PyeongChang 2018. This performance would equal the country’s best Winter Olympic performance achieved four years ago in Sochi. While just over half of Sweden’s medals in South Korea are projected to be won in the sport of cross country skiing, podium places are predicted in five different sports. Sweden has never won medals in more than five different sports at a Winter Games. At both the 2002 and 2006 Games, Sweden finished among the top three in precisely five sports.
Leading gold medal contenders for Sweden: Stina Nilsson (Cross Country Skiing), Victor Öhling-Norberg (Freestyle Skiing), Sandra Näslund (Freestyle Skiing).
Japan is forecast to achieve its best performance at a Winter Games at PyeongChang 2018. With 14 medals (3 gold, 7 silver and 4 bronze) expected, Japan will place podium spots across six different sports, more than ever before. Japan’s previous best Winter Olympic performance was at Nagano 1998 where they won 10 medals on home soil.
Leading gold medal contenders for Japan: Akito Watabe (Nordic Combined), Nao Kodaira (Speed Skating) and the women’s team pursuit speed skating team.
Since first becoming a serious contender at the Winter Olympics 20 years ago, China has won between eight and 11 medals at every subsequent Winter Games competition. This year looks like no exception with the Virtual Medal Table forecasting 10 medals (6 gold, 2 silver and 2 bronze). Six gold medals would be China’s best achievement at a Winter Olympics, beating the five golds won at Vancouver 2010.
Leading gold medal contenders for China: Sui Wenjing and Cong Han (Figure Skating), Qi Guangpu (Freestyle Skiing), Xu Mengtao (Freestyle Skiing), Wu Dajing (Short Track), Fan Kexin (Short Track) and the men’s 5000m relay short track team.
Host nation South Korea will rely primarily on short track for its nine medals (6 gold and 3 silver). With potential gold placements in skeleton and speed skating, the country will capitalize on its recent expansion beyond short track. If South Korea wins six gold medals, it will be the country’s highest gold haul at a Winter Games, equalling the six won at both Torino 2006 and Sochi 2014.
Leading gold medal contenders for South Korea: Seo Yi Ra (Short Track), Choi Minjeong (Short Track), Shim Suk Hee (Short Track), Lee Seung-Hoon (Speed Skating), Kim Bo-Reum (Speed Skating) and the women’s 3000m relay short track team.
Russian competitors allowed to participate at PyeongChang 2018 will represent an NOC called Olympic Athletes from Russia under the Olympic flag. The Gracenote Virtual Medal Table currently projects these Russian participants will win 8 medals (2 gold, 3 silver and 3 bronze), 10 medals fewer than what would have been projected for Russia if all current participants on the World Cup circuit had been available.
Leading gold medal contenders for Olympic Athletes from Russia: Evgeniya Medvedeva (Figure Skating) and the figure skating team.
Finland is projected to win eight medals (2 silver and 6 bronze) with podium placements for biathlon, cross country skiing and ice hockey.
Italy is forecast to win six medals (1 gold, 4 silver and 1 bronze) in South Korea, following a decline in Winter Olympic success since the country won a record 20 medals at Nagano 1998. The cross country skiing men’s team sprint freestyle looks like Italy’s best chance of gold for Dietmar Nöckler and Federico Pellegrino.
While the Czech Republic‘s medal total has increased at each of the last three Winter Olympics, the Virtual Medal Table expects its haul to fall 50% from a record-high eight medals in Sochi 2014 to four (3 gold and 1 silver) in PyeongChang 2018. Czech success in South Korea will most likely be provided by speed skater Martina Sáblíková and snowboard star Ester Ledecká.
Australia is set to achieve its best ever Winter Olympic run with a total of four medals (2 gold, 1 silver and 1 bronze). The country won its first Winter Olympic medal in Lillehammer in 1994. Freestyle skier Britteny Cox and snowboarder Scott James have the best chances of winning gold for Australia in PyeongChang.
Slovakia is forecast to also deliver its best Winter Olympic performance with a total of four medals (1 silver and 3 bronze) at PyeongChang 2018, beating the three won at Vancouver 2010. Slovakian alpine skier Petra Vlhová and biathlete Anastasia Kuzmina are expected to be the main drivers behind this year’s record-breaking run.
Poland enjoyed its two best Winter Olympics performances in 2010 and 2014, winning six medals at each. One of the most important members of that Poland team, cross country skier Justyna Kowalczyk, is no longer the force she once was so it is now left to ski jumper Kamil Stoch to ensure that Poland meets its prediction of three medals (2 gold and 1 bronze).
While Belarus won a record six medals, including five gold, at Sochi 2014, the country will need biathlete Darya Domracheva to outperform Virtual Medal Table expecations in order to replicate that success in February. The Virtual Medal Table projects two silver medals and a bronze for Belarus in South Korea.
Great Britain has stated its goal is to win five medals in PyeongChang but the Gracenote Virtual Medal Table forecasts a total of two (1 silver and 1 bronze). Short track skater Elise Christie has the best chance to place on the podium.
It has been 38 years since Hungary last won a Winter Olympic medal. But with talented brothers Sandor Liu Shaolin and Shaoang Liu competing in the short track in PyeongChang, the Hungarian team has an opportunity to take home one silver and one bronze medal. This would be a new record for Hungary.
Belgium may win its first Winter Olympic medal in PyeongChang since 1998 when Dutch-born Bart Veldkamp won bronze in speed skating. Belgium are projected two bronze medals at the 2018 Winter Games via snowboarder Seppe Smits and speed skater Bart Swings.
Figure skater Javier Fernández is forecast to win gold for Spain at the 2018 Winter Olympics. If he delivers, it will be Spain’s second gold at the Winter Olympics, 46 years after the first in 1972. Spain has not been on a Winter Games podium since 1992.
Latvia is forecast to win one gold medal in PyeongChang. This will likely go to Martins Dukurs in skeleton and will be the country’s second Winter Games gold.
Liechtenstein’s Tina Weirather is forecast to win silver in alpine skiing’s Super G. If Weirather wins a medal of any color, it will be the country’s first in 30 years since Paul Frommelt won bronze in slalom in Calgary. If Weirather overperforms our prediction to win gold, she will be only the second to do so, following her mother Hanni Wenzel in 1980.
Kazakhstan is forecast to win a bronze medal with freestyle skier Dmitry Reyhard ranked third by the Virtual Medal Table in the moguls event. If Reyhard secures his sport on the podium, it would be Kazakhstan’s first Olympic medal in freestyle skiing.
Ukraine is forecast to win one bronze medal at PyeongChang 2018 with the women’s 4x5km relay team in South Korea.
Slovenia, Denmark, New Zealand and Bulgaria all have competitors ranked in the top-8 by the Virtual Medal Table and it would be no surprise to see athletes from these countries outperforming the projections and winning Winter Olympic medals. Slovenia in particular has multiple opportunities, in cross country skiing, freestyle skiing, ski jumping and snowboard.
Gracenote’s Virtual Medal Table (VMT) is a statistical model based on individual and team results in previous Olympics Games, World Championships and World Cups to forecast the most likely gold, silver and bronze medal winners by country. This information is presented in simple to understand predictions and seamless data feeds that enable broadcasters, media publishers and pay TV operators to deliver unique Olympic-focused stories across Web, mobile and broadcast properties.
Gracenote, a Nielsen (NYSE: NLSN) company, provides music, video and sports content and technologies to the world’s hottest entertainment products and brands. Gracenote is the standard for music and video recognition and is supported by the largest source of entertainment data, including rich data on 4,500 of the world’s most popular leagues and competitions as well as a deep trove of historical Olympics information going back to the very first modern games in 1896. For a closer look at the full Virtual Medal Table, its features and methodology, please visit: http://sportsdemo1.gracenote.com/documentation/vmt. For more information on Gracenote Sports, visit: http://www.gracenote.com/sports/global-sports-data/.