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2018 Virtual Medal Table

As the Summer Olympic Games in Tokyo are just over a year away, Gracenote is releasing its initial Virtual Medal Table predicting which countries will take home the Olympic medals up for grabs and how we expect the final medal tally to look.


  • The United States is expected to win the most medals at Tokyo 2020. This would mark the seventh successive Olympic Summer Games in which the US team has come out on top in the medal count competition.
  • Japan is expected to increase its medal total by 54% over Rio 2016, making the host nation a genuine challenger to China for second place.
  • China fell to 70 medals in 2016 and is expected to bounce back slightly in Tokyo, exposing vulnerability to fast-rising host nation Japan and Russia.
  • Russia is set for an increase in medals compared to its total of 55 at Rio 2016. Still, the Russian team is in a battle to rise from fourth in the medal table.
  • Great Britain’s medal total is expected to drop significantly from 2016 and the British will battle for a top five spot rather than top three as in the last two Olympics.
  • Australia should improve on 2016 to challenge the British for a top-five place.
  • France, Germany, Italy and the Netherlands currently round out the Virtual Medal Table top 10 medal winners. The Netherlands would therefore replace Canada in the top 10 medal winners from 2016.
  • Korea Republic is also improving enough to challenge for a top 10 spot in the 2020 medal table.
Virtual Medal Table Top-10

Gracenote Virtual Medal Table projections are based on a proprietary statistical model applied to our extensive database of Olympic sports performance results. The Virtual Medal Table and forthcoming additional detailed predictions on individual medallists will be updated periodically as Tokyo 2020 approaches.

Gracenote can deliver the Virtual Medal Table data feed, provide a widget to easily integrate into your digital platform as well as produce editorial analysis focused on a specific nation, sport or athletes of interest.

For more information on Gracenote’s entire portfolio of Summer Games solutions, visit Gracenote 2020 Summer Games.

If you would like to learn more about Gracenote’s Virtual Medal Table, please contact us.

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About Gracenote Virtual Medal Table

Gracenote’s Virtual Medal Table forecasts the most likely Olympic Games gold, silver and bronze medal winners by country and is based on a proprietary statistical model applied across Gracenote’s deep sports database including individual and team results in previous Olympics Games, World Championships and World Cups.

The Virtual Medal forecast is in the form of the top-8 in order for each of the medal events at the Games and an overall medal table. It takes the following into account: Results – Points are awarded for every result based on rank. Big time or points differences are also rewarded as is dominance for athletes with few results; Time – A recent result is always worth more than an older one based on a continuous function; Competition – More weight is given to a result achieved in a World Championship or Olympic Games than in a World Cup event.

Updated monthly leading up to the Games, the Gracenote Virtual Medal Table and related insights are a compelling means for media publishers, broadcasters and TV/video services to enhance their coverage of the Olympic Games and engage audiences with unique content across any digital platform.

About Gracenote

Gracenote, a Nielsen (NYSE: NLSN)  company, is the world’s leading entertainment data and technology company. The hottest entertainment products and brands around the globe rely on Gracenote’s music, video and sports content and technologies. Gracenote is the standard for music and video recognition and is supported by the largest source of entertainment data, featuring descriptions of more than 200 million tracks, TV listings for 85+ countries and rich statistics from 4,500 sport leagues and competitions. Headquartered in Emeryville, California, Gracenote supports customers around the globe. For more information on Gracenote Sports, visit

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